91st Academy Awards Predictions

A particularly nasty awards season will come to a close this Sunday and will either be capped off by a glorious triumph for cinema (i.e., if Roma wins) or a crushing embarrassment that will haunt the Academy for the rest of its existence (i.e., if Green Book wins). Unfortunately, this tension has not been relegated to the top prize, but can also be found in many of the below-the-line categories. Years from now, people will surely look back at some of the winners and ask “how the heck did that happen?”

I’m going into tomorrow’s ceremony more nervous than I’ve ever been. The Academy’s last two Best Picture picks (Moonlight and The Shape of Water) have hinted at a beautiful new direction reflective of the film industry’s increasingly progressive values. What wins will either confirm that this bigger and better Academy is here to stay, or the pendulum will swing the other way in a petty act of backlash (think the move from Obama to Trump).

Typically, the Oscars can be reliably predicted with stats: Certain films dominate certain precursor awards ceremonies and we all place our bets with confidence. That’s not the case this year—no single film is “the one to beat”, and there are a lot of factors that could cause a variety of upsets.

Firstly, there’s the Academy’s preferential ballot system, which sees voters rank the Best Picture nominees from favorite to least favorite rather than selecting an individual film. This means that second- and third-place votes can be invaluable, that “love it or hate it” films struggle to pull off a victory, and that the final winner tends to be the film that everyone dislikes the least.

Secondly, the Academy’s efforts to diversify their membership could pay off in surprising ways. One indicator is Roma’s wealth of nominations and the unexpected inclusions of Cold War (Director and Cinematography), Never Look Away (Cinematography), and Border (Makeup and Hairstyling); clearly, international filmmakers are shaking things up in ways that the pundits don’t yet understand.

With all that said, here are my predictions for the 91^st annual Academy Awards.

(Netflix)

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

Perhaps the toughest category of the night—and certainly the most nerve-wracking—this could go down any number of ways. A Star Is Born was the early favorite but has all but vanished from the competition. The preferential ballot could still help it out, but Bradley Cooper’s absence from the Directing race makes its comeback doubtful. Vice puzzled critics with its persistence, but it’s unlikely to pull off any wins besides Makeup and Hairstyling. The Favourite co-lead the nominees, but I imagine that its Lanthimos quirks and superb trio of women will turn off the old white men that people tend to associate with the Academy. BlacKkKlansman has been present throughout awards season and has gotten all the requisite guild nominations but has failed to win any. Though it’s politically explosive, it’s also too “woke” for the older voters who scoffed at Get Out last year. They’re much more likely to reward Spike with a Screenplay win.

That leaves us with four films: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, and Roma. Black Panther unexpectedly won at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and its status as a cultural juggernaut would make for a satisfying win, regardless of what you think of the film. Nevertheless, much of the Academy will scoff at the very thought of rewarding a superhero film, so it will likely perform poorly on the preferential ballot.

Bohemian Rhapsody disgusted critics, but it has been a persistent nuisance throughout the season. Director Bryan Singer’s pedophilia allegations will hopefully halt its chances, but I can’t shake the feeling that it could still pull it off in a blatant insult to the #MeToo movement.

Therefore, the race ultimately comes down to Green Book versus Roma, two very different films that ultimately personify the violent conflict within the older and younger segments of the Academy. Green Book is a “both sides” movie that lacks a basic understanding of how racism works, but it has charmed the older white voters who…lack a basic understanding of how racism works. Its role in the awards narrative is not unlike last year’s Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, another film that divided the film community with its handling of such a sensitive topic. We all saw how that one turned out, though.

This brings us to Roma. The critical darling has a lot working against it (the Netflix factor, its deliberate pacing, the lack of color, and the fact that not a single non-English language film has won before), but it’s undeniably the best film nominated. It triumphed at the BAFTAs a couple of weeks ago, which is a good sign. The way I see it, if the Academy wants to make a political statement here (which they should), Roma is a film that masterfully addresses issues of class, gender, and race, all while set south of our border. You want to piss off the Orange Cheeto? Look no further. Factor in the aforementioned presence of new international voters and the fact that even those who aren’t in love with the film still respect it and I think it will play very nicely on the preferential ballot.

If it wins, nothing will ever be the same again—Netflix will have a Best Picture Oscar, the Academy will cease to be an English-only institution, and I will be able to go to sleep a happy man.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Green Book

Should Win: Roma

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay, Vice

Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War

Alfonso Cuarón has dominated the precursors, including the DGAs—his win is all but certain. The only person potentially standing in his way is Spike Lee, whose win would make for a great Oscar moment.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Could Win: Spike Lee

Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Glenn Close is a Hollywood veteran who has yet to claim an Oscar. Olivia Colman and Lady Gaga both have some traction, but not enough to stage an upset. I would love to see the new international voters cause a shocking surprise win for Yalitza Aparicio happen, but that’s probably wishful thinking.

Will Win: Glenn Close

Could Win: Olivia Colman

Should Win: Yalitza Aparicio

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

For whatever reason, everybody loves Rami. Cooper’s surprise exclusion in the Directing race could lead to some sympathy votes here and Bale’s physical transformation demands respect but, again, both are unlikely.

Will Win: Rami Malek

Could Win: Christian Bale

Should Win: Ethan Hawke (not nominated)

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

The least certain of the acting categories, this one could go a few ways. The favorite is Regina King for her powerful turn in If Beale Street Could Talk. If Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz don’t split the vote for The Favourite, the latter could also feasibly take the gold. Still, I wouldn’t count out Roma’s Marina de Tavira, whose surprise nomination could carry over into a surprise win.

Will Win: Regina King

Could Win: Rachel Weisz

Should Win: Marina de Tavira

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Mahershala Ali is Green Book’s one redeeming factor—the man is a powerhouse of an actor who brings his A-game to every role. It’s the only win for the film that I would be fine with, as it means we’ll get to see him in even more films. Richard E. Grant has consistently been on Ali’s tail, and his impeccable charm would also make for a great moment.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Could Win: Richard E. Grant

Should Win: Mahershala Ali

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

All eyes are on this category to provide some foresight on the evening’s Best Picture winner. The Writer’s Guild gave this award to Eighth Grade, which was unfortunately snubbed by the Academy. This will reveal how strong the Green Book passion really is—a win for The Favourite is a win for film lovers everywhere, while a win for Green Book spells impending doom. A surprise Roma victory (which is incredibly unlikely) would foreshadow an unquestionable Best Picture triumph. If it were up to me? Paul Shrader’s First Reformed was one of the best films of 2018 and deserves this trophy for its nuanced handling of America’s political climate.

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Green Book

Should Win: First Reformed

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Get ready to stand when Spike wins his first competitive Oscar. Just don’t be too shocked if WGA-winner Can You Ever Forgive Me? steals it.

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Could Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Cinematography

Cold War

The Favourite

Never Look Away

Roma

A Star Is Born

Is there any doubt? Actually, maybe. Cold War won with the American Society of Cinematographers, who didn’t take kindly to Cuarón shooting his own film in lieu of a dedicated DP. The wider Academy is unlikely to note the difference, however, and Roma is unquestionably the greatest achievement here.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Should Win: Roma

Best Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Vice

What even is this lineup? The Academy should be incredibly embarrassed. BlacKkKlansman suffers from some odd pacing, The Favourite drags a bit in the second half, and Green Book is utterly unremarkable. Bohemian Rhapsody is supposedly a mess here (I have yet to see it due to Singer’s history of sexual abuse), but the industry has apparently taken pity on veteran editor John Ottman for salvaging a disaster of a shoot into something semi-coherent. On the other hand, Vice is the flashiest film here, which has been the trend in the last several years. It also took the BAFTA.

But seriously, where is Roma?

Will Win: Vice

Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should Win: Roma

(Marvel Studios)

Best Production Design

Black Panther

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

These next two categories are neck-and-neck between The Favourite and Black Panther. The former is the conventional (and perhaps, when filling out your ballot, the logical) choice, but the latter would be historic—it makes for the better Oscar narrative. Personally, I think the Academy has seriously underappreciated the craftsmanship that went into Roma’s recreation of 1970s Mexico City and Cuarón’s childhood home.

Will Win: Black Panther

Could Win: The Favourite

Should Win: Roma

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

The upgraded Black Panther suit itself is lackluster, but the rest of the Wakandan garb is stunning. Unfortunately, The Favourite’s Sandy Powell is unstoppable Oscar favorite (pun not intended). Flip a coin.

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Black Panther

Should Win: Black Panther

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Infinity War swept the visual effects society, but First Man is the “mature” contender. I could also imagine Solo (or any of the other nominees, really) coming out of nowhere for a shocking win.

Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Could Win: First Man

Should Win: Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Score

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

One of the more wide-open categories of the night, this could go any number of ways. Conventional wisdom says it’s Black Panther versus If Beale Street Could Talk, but BlacKkKlansman might surprise us.

Will Win: Black Panther

Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Song

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, “When a Cowboy Trades his Spurs for Wings”

Black Panther, “All the Stars”

Mary Poppins Returns, “The Place Where Lost Things Go”

RGB, “I’ll Fight”

A Star Is Born, “Shallow”

A Star Is Born will have to settle for this single award for what, even I have to admit, is a fantastic song. It made for a great moment in an okay movie.

Will Win: “Shallow”

Could Win: “All the Stars”

Should Win: “Shallow”

Best Sound Editing

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

I’ll be on the edge of my seat for both sound categories. Bohemian Rhapsody took the BAFTA (which combines Editing and Mixing into a single “Sound” award), but A Quiet Place is a distinctly sound-based experience. First Man could also sneak in an snatch it.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: A Quiet Place

Should Win: A Quiet Place

Best Sound Mixing

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

Again, Bohemian Rhapsody will likely take this one, but A Star Is Born is another quasi-musical with an impressive mix. If we’re underestimating anything here, it’s Roma, which has one of the most exceptional and nuanced surround sound mixes I have ever heard. Unfortunately, with that film’s Netflix release, many of the voters likely didn’t get a chance to properly experience it. However, if the technical branches did their homework, I wouldn’t rule it out.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: A Star Is Born

Should Win: Roma

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Border

Mary Queen of Scots

Border

And the Oscar for making Christian Bale look like Dick Cheney goes to…

Will Win: Vice

Could Win: Mary Queen of Scots

Should Win: Vice

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum

Cold War

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

Roma should take this without question, unless enough voters decide they want to vote for Cold War here and Roma for Best Picture so as to spread the love.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Should Win: Roma

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spider-Verse is a landmark in animation, a timely and inspiring narrative, and of 2018’s best films. Let’s just hope the Pixar bias doesn’t strike.

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Could Win: Incredibles 2

Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Feature

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

A coin toss between Free Solo and RBG. However, I’m betting that the disgusting embarrassment that is Brett Kavanaugh will have motivated voters to celebrate an American hero.

Will Win: RBG

Could Win: Free Solo

Should Win: Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (not nominated)

My Ideal Oscars Lineup

(Time)

Every year the Oscar nominations are announced and every year they’re bound to be upsetting in one way or another—sometimes a great film is inexplicably snubbed, other times a bad film is inexplicably nominated. It’s a predictable cycle of anticipation, disappointment, and outrage.

This year’s batch of nominations is particularly puzzling. The 2018 ceremony gave us a plethora of instant classics to choose from (Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Get Out, Lady Bird, Call Me by Your Name, and Phantom Thread; wow, what an amazing lineup), but save for Roma, 2019 feels like a steaming pile of mediocrity.

In fact, this year’s nominations are so bafflingly underwhelming that I felt my usual “should have been nominated” aside on my predictions article wouldn’t cut it. Enter this list of ideal nominations. What follows is a rundown of 16 of the 24 categories that I have revamped to imagine what the nominations might have looked like in a utopian world where more Academy members have good taste.

I tried my best not to deviate too much from what feasibly could have been (e.g., although Mission: Impossible – Fallout was one of the best films of the year, it had no chance of ever being a Best Picture nominee). My ideal winner for each category has been bolded.

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Cold War

Eighth Grade

If Beale Street Could Talk

First Reformed

Paddington 2

Roma

Vox Lux

Widows

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War

Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here

Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Best Actor

Tom Cruise, Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Viola Davis, Widows

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Joanna Kulig, Cold War

KiKi Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Colman Domingo, If Beale Street Could Talk

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Josh Hamilton, Eighth Grade

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Best Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade

First Reformed

Roma

Sorry to Bother You

Vox Lux

Best Adapted Screenplay

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Paddington 2

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Widows

Best Cinematography

Cold War

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Film Editing

Cold War

First Reformed

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Roma

Best Production Design

Bad Times at the El Royale

Black Panther

Paddington 2

Roma

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Score

Black Panther

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Vice

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

First Man

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Paddington 2

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Costume Design

Black Panther

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Paddington 2

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Sound Editing

First Man

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

A Quiet Place

Roma

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Sound Mixing

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

A Quiet Place

Roma

A Star Is Born

Widows

The Best Movies of 2018

(Marvel Studios)

And just like that another year has come and gone. While not packed with as many fantastic films as 2017, 2018 still had a lot to offer.

I’ve decided to mix things up a bit this year. Instead of my usual 10 films, I’m offering 15. It’s a change I wish I had made last year, as I look back and am saddened by how many incredible films got left on the sideline.

I also have become increasingly annoyed by the completely arbitrary differences between, say, the number eight film and the number seven film. For this reason, I have listed the first nine films alphabetically. Numbers six through one are ranked like a typical top 10 list.

First, some honorable mentions. For some reason I soured on Black Panther after a second viewing at home, but upon third viewing I’m back to celebrating it as an exciting cultural event with a smart political slant and only a handful of small detractors. Avengers: Infinity War isn’t an especially exceptional film per se, but as a culmination of the MCU it was a hilarious, colorful thrill ride with a killer villain and a killer ending. With Ryan Coogler helming Black Panther, Creed II didn’t quite match the surprising excellence of its predecessor, but it had me in tears for what seemed like half of its runtime. Support the Girls was an unexpectedly heartfelt and sympathetic tribute to women’s solidarity. Finally, while the film built around her is merely okay, I want to give a special shout-out to Jessie Buckley’s character in Beast, who I found to be one of the most fascinating and memorable characters in any film this year.

15. – 7. (Alphabetical)

(Paramount)

Annihilation

Alex Garland’s previous film Ex Machina is one of my all-time favorites, so I was initially disappointed with my first viewing of Annihilation. But after giving it another shot over the summer, its themes of self-destruction became more evident and the overall pacing of its descent into madness felt more controlled. The film sports a few tremendously tense sequences and the climax is one the most gleefully bizzaro moments in recent memory. It never reaches Ex Machina’s utter brilliance, but it’s still a great piece of science fiction.

(Annihilation will be available to stream on Hulu starting January 5^th.)

(20th Century Fox)

Bad Times at the El Royale

Boasting the year’s finest collection of songs, an exquisite 1960s set, a terrific cast, and plenty of twists and turns, Bad Times at the El Royale is a nostalgic mystery with style in spades. One of my favorite straightforward entertainments of the year.

(Paramount)

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

The story here is serviceable, but it keeps you invested as the film moves from one phenomenal set piece to the next. Between the HALO jump one-shot, the brutal bathroom beatdown, and the climactic helicopter chase and cliff-side showdown, Mission: Impossible – Fallout has the best action this side of Mad Max: Fury Road. It’s nonstop excitement from start to finish.

(GAGA Pictures)

Shoplifters

Hirokazu Kore-eda’s Palme d’Or winner oozes with empathy. It’s the embodiment of the idea that the people related to you are not always your true family and is well worth seeking out.

(Lucasfilm)

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Perhaps the most unfairly dismissed film of 2018, Solo didn’t have the same cultural impact as the previous three Star Wars films. Take a closer look, however, and you’ll find a film that harkens back to Lucas’s original inspirations: Solo is a delightful mashup of western and gangster genre tropes. The cast is beyond charming and it continues the series’ allegorical undercurrent of cultural diversity and political resistance.

(Solo: A Star Wars Story will be available to stream on Netflix starting January 9^th.)

(Annapurna Pictures)

Sorry to Bother You

Unfortunately overlooked by the general public this summer in favor of Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, Boots Riley’s directorial debut is a pointed takedown of contemporary American capitalism with a decidedly racial edge. Sorry to Bother You covers a lot of ground, but it maintains its excellence even during its most outré developments—an exquisite piece of satire.

(Sorry to Bother You is available to stream on Hulu.)

(Sony)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

With one of the most inventive animation styles put to screen, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is one of the most visually exciting films you’ll ever see. This comic book brought to life also sports a remarkably funny, heartfelt, and compelling narrative that hits on what initially made the Spider-Man character so beloved all those years ago. Into the Spider-Verse reminds us that anyone can wear the mask, and moreover, that there’s room for more than one hero in this crazy world of ours. It’s also a beautiful sendoff to the legendary Stan Lee.

(20th Century Fox)

Widows

A supremely compelling heist thriller imbued with smart commentary on issues of class, gender, and race, Steve McQueen’s Widows may not have the same ferocious effect as Shame or Twelve Years a Slave, but it’s his most accessible film yet and has a superb ensemble cast. It disappointed at the box office, but I imagine this film will go on to have quite the legacy.

(Focus Features)

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

In a year of politics even more distressing than 2017, this Fred Rogers documentary is a much-needed dose of genuine compassion and kindness. It’s a terrific reminder to love your neighbor.

6. – 1. (Ranked)

(Annapurna Pictures)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk

Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight is one of the greatest films of the century, so I had some high expectations for his latest effort. This is an achingly beautiful film in every sense: people, narrative, images, and score. It’s a tender and affectionate love story throughout, but it also depicts injustices that have, of course, failed to vanish from America. However, even in its most heartbreaking moments, If Beale Street Could Talk reminds us that love will always persevere. If Moonlight wasn’t enough, this film confirms that Jenkins is not only one of the kindest filmmakers working today, but also one of the most immensely talented.

(Neon)

5. Vox Lux

The dark, twisted antithesis to A Star Is Born, Vox Lux recognizes the sheer ridiculousness and excess of pop music celebrity. Natalie Portman’s Celeste has clear parallels with Lady Gaga, and Portman seems plenty content with depicting her as a grown child incapable of any genuine artistry and trapped in a never-ending performance. Emerging from national tragedy, Celeste is also an acknowledgement of our cultural inability to respond to similar horrors in an appropriate fashion, instead worshipping repugnant bombardments of the senses. I love this film and am saddened by the lack of attention it so deeply deserved.

(A24)

4. Eighth Grade

By far the funniest film of the year, Bo Burnham’s Eighth Grade is also one of the most empathetic and relatable—like the best of films, it finds the universal in the specific. Middle school is probably the most uncomfortable period in most people’s lives, and while you’re likely to cringe at many a scene here, Burnham taps into such an honest sense of humor that it’s never anything less than marvelously entertaining. What’s more, it’s a perfect time capsule of our digital era and the immense impact it’s had on the current generation of children.

(Eighth Grade will be available to stream on Amazon Prime starting January 13^th.)

(A24)

3. First Reformed

Paul Schrader’s First Reformed makes it abundantly clear that it’s about the Trump era without ever doing so clumsily, and indeed it immediately joins the ranks of a handful of instant classics (Get Out, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Shape of Water, to name just a few) that perfectly capture the anxieties of our present. Schrader touches on a lot here—mainly climate change and political extremism—but the most haunting issue is also the most deceptively simple: Will God forgive us? You don’t have to be a believer to find the question utterly fascinating, and it’s to the film’s credit that it never comes across as ham-fisted or juvenile. Looking around at the world, I would posit that the answer is a firm no, but I’ll let you decide that for yourself.

(First Reformed is available to stream on Amazon Prime)

(Warner Bros.)

2. Paddington 2

No, it’s not a joke—Paddington 2 is a completely absorbing piece of family entertainment with several Oscar-worthy elements and the most lovable talking animal put to screen. Like The Shape of Water last year, this film is an antidote to cynicism. No matter how scary life can get, it’s impossible not to watch Paddington 2 and have your troubles momentarily melt away. Paddington genuinely makes us want to be better people because, in our hearts, we know that if we all tried to be more like him, the world really would be a better place. You’ll laugh, you’ll smile, and by the end you’ll shed a tear or two. Don’t believe me? Give it a chance and I guarantee you’re in for a treat.

(Paddington 2 is available to stream on HBO)

(Netflix)

1. Roma

As the culmination of Y Tu Mamá También, Children of Men, and Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma is an undeniably momentous piece of cinema. The Mexican auteur’s most personal film yet, it takes everything the director has learned and tells a story that’s at once achingly intimate and surprisingly grand. There aren’t enough superlatives in the English language to properly praise Roma—it has the most staggering visuals, the most assured direction and superb craftsmanship, the most impressive performances, the most deliberate and engrossing editing, and the most emotionally overwhelming moment of any film this year. It’s the rare film that reminds you what movies in their highest form can be, and it's an immediate entry into the canon of the greatest films ever made.

(Roma is available to stream on Netflix. However, I implore you to see the film on the big screen. You can read all about why in my essay, The Netflix Paradox, here.)

As always, I was unable to catch every film I wanted to before the year’s end. Some that may or may not have made this list: Cold War, Burning, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice, The Other Side of the Wind, Crazy Rich Asians, Searching, Welcome to Marwen, On the Basis of Sex, Aquaman, Bird Box, American Animals, Blindspotting, Happy as Lazaro, Zama, Minding the Gap, The Kindergarten Teacher, Lean on Pete, 22 July, The Miseducation of Cameron Post, and The Tale, among many others.

You can read my reviews for some of the films mentioned here at these links:

Annihilation (no longer reflective of my thoughts on the film)

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

Solo: A Star Wars Story

The Netflix Paradox: An Impassioned Defense of the Idea of the Movie Theater

(Photo via MarketWatch)

With a business model perfectly tuned to our rapid-fire digital age (i.e., more, more, more; now, now, now), Netflix has been disrupting the film and television industries for several years. On the television front, most were quick to accept them—the company kicked off the dominance of streaming services and the corresponding binge watching, and now the majority of annual accolades are handed out to shows produced by and for Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu, and the like. They call it the golden age of television.

Breaking into the film industry has been significantly more troublesome, and for good reason: their business model is intentionally destructive to the exhibition practices that have been more-or-less consistent since Georges Méliès took audiences on their first trip to the moon. The company is, in a sense, responsible for the financial struggles Hollywood now faces (if not the cause, they are at least the primary symptom). With more options at their fingertips than any one person could ever hope to watch in a lifetime, audiences are overwhelmed with content that they don’t even need to leave their couches to access. Pair that with ticket costs that, in many cases, are pricier than a single month’s subscription to Netflix, and it’s not difficult to see why movie theaters are becoming endangered. It’s why the only films major studios seem to churn out now are blockbusters based on pre-existing IP. Sequels, prequels, and reboots are the name of the game in modern Hollywood—at least with those there’s some glimmer of hope that enough people will show up to turn a profit.

This article has been simmering inside me for the better part of a year. My grudge against Netflix isn't new, but it wasn’t until 2018 that it felt so necessary to voice. It began in March when the company scooped up distribution rights from Paramount for two notable pieces of science fiction cinema—the J.J. Abrams-produced The Cloverfield Paradox and Alex Garland’s Annihilation (internationally, at least). It was troublesome indeed that a genre that had been a relatively safe bet for the last few decades was suddenly deemed a potential liability. It was surely a sign of changing times, and with Disney acquiring 20^th Century Fox, I’m still betting that Paramount will go under in the next few years, pushing us ever closer to a complete media oligopoly.

But for whatever reason, I never got around to writing this piece. And then came Roma.

Alfonso Cuarón has always been a favorite filmmaker of mine. Gravity taught me the wonders of visual storytelling when I was a sophomore in high school while Children of Men dominated my academic studies from February to May. If there are only a handful of filmmakers who consistently make cinema of the highest form, whose work not just benefits from but outright demands the big screen, one of them is Cuarón. So when I heard that Netflix had acquired his latest film, I had only one response: “Shit.”

For those unaware, Netflix operates under a policy called day-and-date release. To translate, it means that they insist on releasing their original films for streaming on the same say they arrive in theaters. (And that’s if they are given a theatrical release. When they do, it’s a measly one-week run in some LA theater in order to meet the minimum qualifications for awards consideration.) It’s a policy that has gotten them serious criticism from voices as towering as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (aka, the Oscars) and France's Festival de Cannes. To some, it’s a petty dispute; to others, including myself, it’s a war that must be won.

The movie theater is not just a fun bonus but an essential element of cinema itself. Before now Netflix wasn’t as much of a threat—their slate of original films largely consisted of a pile of duds. Sure, there were some small-scale critical hits (e.g., Beasts of No Nation, Okja, First They Killed My Father, etc.), but most of them were no better than direct-to-DVD movies (e.g., Bright, The Ridiculous Six, Mute, and a long list of others that you may or may not have even heard of). The through line was that none of the films really seemed to matter all that much.

But Roma is a different story. Here is a genuine masterpiece from one of the greatest living filmmakers that has rightly been labeled the best film of 2018 by seemingly every critical voice of even remote importance. Other filmmakers champion it (Guillermo del Toro placed it among the five best films ever made; Barry Jenkins seemingly spends more time on Twitter praising it than promoting his own If Beale Street Could Talk). I confidently bet my sister money that it would receive at least five Oscar nominations come January. Yet Netflix remains a dark cloud that will likely mar a small part of the film’s legacy.

See, Roma will always be inferior on your 4K TV, laptop, or cell phone (*shudders*) than when projected in an auditorium—all films will, for there is a psychology to the movie theater. We don’t go because bigger means better (it often doesn’t); we go because it is fundamentally different from the small screen.

I want to preface what follows with a few notes to prevent my words from appearing elitist. I recognize that the movie theater is a privilege. Movie tickets cost money, and unless you live near a major city it can often be challenging to locate many of today’s greatest films. Roma is only playing in 100 theaters across the U.S. (To give that number perspective, a typical wide release plays on anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 screens.) So while I champion the person on Twitter who took a train from Indiana to Chicago just to see Roma the way Cuarón intended, it is okay that not everyone has that kind of commitment. In terms of economics and convenience, Netflix has an undeniable appeal that, in several respects, has given more people the opportunity to access independent, foreign, and documentary cinema. The title to this piece is more than a riff on the third Cloverfield entry—it is an acknowledgment that, despite all my frustrations, Netflix is at once destroyer and savior.

Chicago's Music Box Theater, one of several movie theaters working tirelessly to keep great cinema alive.

But I digress. Like all things in life, academics have dedicated countless hours to explaining how cinema works. To summarize, there are two core ideas behind the movie theater: scopophilia and voyeurism. Scopophilia is simply pleasure in looking—the pleasure of the image, of watching. It is not unique to cinema, for we derive the same pleasure from paintings, photographs, plays, and all other visual media.

Voyeurism is a different beast. It is what separates the theatre from the cinema and what, in my own opinion, makes the latter superior. It is pleasure in looking and not being seen. There is no risk of this with a painting or photography, for they are static and pose no threat of returning your gaze. But with the theatre, you are watching live events and real people, and deep in the recesses of your subconscious, you know that you are not safe. The actors on stage can see you. Your gaze can be returned, and that is frightening and deeply uncomfortable. (A brief aside here to note that this is not a criticism of theatre per se. Like apples and oranges, the theatre is very much a different medium and comes with its own unique benefits, namely its impermanence.)

In the cinema the events also play out “live” (not in the truest sense of the word, but there is a progression of time and space that gives off the illusion that events are happening in the here and the now). However, the actors and actions exist in a realm separate from our own. We get to gaze upon them, but they are unable to do the same.

Movie theaters are completely designed around voyeurism. Auditoriums are constructed to encourage it, engulfing viewers in darkness where they are to remain hidden while the singular light of the screen demands all attention. It is sheltered viewing that leaves the film itself as the sole party responsible for generating emotions.

However, that voyeurism is unfortunately not guaranteed. And like a Peeping Tom being exposed, the disruption of a voyeuristic experience (i.e., anything at all that makes you, the viewer, feel seen) has an extremely negative impact. This is where human distractions come into play. It’s the difference between one person laughing in a crowded theater and the entire audience laughing. When one stranger in the dark cackles, it is annoying. It disturbs your voyeurism by reminding you that you are not alone in that theater—the people on screen might not be able to see you, but that doesn’t mean you are completely removed from the gaze of others. But when everyone laughs, it goes unnoticed. What’s more, it can be euphoric, and it speaks to the collective potential of the moviegoing experience. An audience working together in perfect harmony enhances a film—it creates an incomparable high worth risking the security obtained from watching a film in solitude.

Voyeurism is a fragile thing; it only takes the slightest intrusion to make that high come crashing down. That’s why talking to your neighbor, kicking the seat in front of you, or pulling out your phone are appalling crimes against your fellow moviegoers. They utterly and fundamentally destroy the effects of the movie theater by bringing attention to the very reality that the cinema attempts to transcend.

But when it works, wow, does it work. For me there is nothing like it. And when Netflix refuses to recognize and respect the sanctity of the movie theater they are effectively normalizing principles that oppose it. They are harming the cinema itself.

Our homes are comforting, but they are breeding grounds for distractions. Cell phones; housemates; outside noises; lights. There are so many things that can prevent you from truly experiencing a film to the fullest. I do my best to replicate the theatrical experience in my home. I turn off all the lights and leave my phone in another room, but it’s still not the same. And I'm not naïve enough to believe most people go through the same efforts, nor do I expect they ever will. They gladly check Snapchat and Instagram, exchange text messages, and add their own commentary. Applied to a film like Roma—cinema at its purest and most immersive—these distractions become violent attacks on everything it stands for.

(Netflix)

Roma is not a light piece of entertainment. It demands (and absolutely rewards) patience, dedication, and quiet introspection. Cuarón carefully crafted the film to be a slow, meditative burn. Scenes of Cleo, the film’s protagonist, working in the kitchen or slowly shutting off the lights for the night recall the then-revolutionary mundanity of Vittorio de Sica’s neorealist stunner Umberto D., while its overall tribute to the domestic work that so often goes unrecognized is akin to Chantal Akerman’s Jeanne Dielman, 23, quai du commerce, 1080 Bruxelles (the cinema’s ultimate exercise in patience). In short, the film is not conventional in either content or pacing.

All of this is to say that the average person watching Roma outside of a movie theater will, I imagine, fall prey to some of those household distractions (I haven’t even mentioned that the film is subtitled and photographed in black and white to boot). I don’t believe it’s inaccessible—the film creeps up on you in unexpected ways until it suddenly and surprisingly unleashes a moment of emotional devastation more powerful than anything most films could even dream of. But if people don’t give themselves to the film, the film cannot give back.

And the sad truth of the matter is that Roma loses a lot without the enormity of the movie theater. I know I said earlier that bigger doesn’t always mean better (emphasis on “always”), but this is a case where it absolutely does. Take the moment where Cleo and one of her surrogate sons lay together on their roof as Cuarón’s camera slowly pans up to reveal an entire neighborhood of domestic workers like Cleo routinely completing the day’s laundry. It’s a shot that situates the film’s narrative within a larger world, but on a smaller screen, suddenly that larger world doesn’t feel all that large. Then there are the countless shots of crowded streets where the eye darts around, trying to take in each piece of the frame until it finally spots Cleo’s familiar presence amidst the other strangers. Again, it takes the deeply intimate elements of the film and reminds us that stories just as breathtaking and urgent as the one at hand are happening everywhere around us. But when the viewer can’t differentiate between any of the faces in the crowd? These themes become lost.

Theater screens are meant to dwarf you, to make you feel insignificant, to assert that you have no control over what you’re about to watch. You are not its master. You cannot pause it whenever you like. In that setting, you should be at the complete mercy of the cinema. The size of the screen is a subtle way of constantly expressing a simple truth: movies are bigger than us. The stories told and the people seen on that screen have implications that extend far beyond the two hours you spend with them. When asked why he opted for a theatrical release for Eighth Grade, a film that, in all honesty, plays just as well on the small screen, Bo Burnham replied that to project a middle school girl on a 50-foot screen is to say that her story is worthy of your attention. It is to say that she matters.

With the greater availability of technology (anyone with a smart phone can shoot and edit a rudimentary film and share it via YouTube or Vimeo), some might argue that we have effectively democratized the moving image and that the movie theater’s power has become redundant. The opposite is true. When anyone can share videos, suddenly none of them seem to make that much of a difference. People only have so much time and attention to offer—a world overwhelmed with voices is a world where the marginalized ones that need to be heard the most get lost in the crowd.

And so the cinema is once again given the great responsibility of serving as a cultural gatekeeper. It’s why representation in film continues to be such a vital concern even when we have more power than ever to chose what to watch and what not to. It’s not enough that anyone has the option to engage with videos made by members of minority groups on the Internet. These people deserve the power of the movie theater to demand our attention and to remove the audience’s ability to look away.

It’s bad enough that Netflix continues to resist the importance and beauty of the movie theater (the brief theatrical release they granted Roma was an attempt to boost the film’s credibility with awards voters and a gesture of good faith to Cuarón for delivering them their first real shot at Oscar gold). As if to rub salt in the wound, the Netflix software intentionally disrupts the intended playthrough of a film. End credits serve a couple purposes—they primarily acknowledge the hundreds of people who dedicated a part of their life to creating what you just witnessed, but they also give you a chance to reflect on it and let it settle with you. So when a film cuts to black and Netflix immediately shrinks it into the upper right corner to bombard you with an advertisement for something else, I get more than a little agitated. But such is befitting a company whose entire business model favors instant gratification and the promise that there will always be more rather than respecting the purity of the present and the accompanying emotional and intellectual reactions.

Everything here is complicated by the fact that Netflix has also done good for cinema. They liberally hand out money to fund passion projects from established filmmakers and newcomers alike, then they step aside and let those artists get to work. Cuarón didn’t hand Roma over to Netflix without good reason—he wanted his quiet foreign language film to touch the hearts of as many people around the world as possible, and sadly, the traditional avenues of film distribution are often prohibitive of this.

The theatrical windows Netflix gave Roma and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs this month were steps in the right direction for the streaming behemoth. Nevertheless, it remains painfully obvious that these were petty attempts to appeal to a wider industry that largely views them with contempt and not an indication of a philosophical one-eighty. If the day ever comes that Netflix genuinely does have a change of heart and begins to respect the timelessness of the moviegoing experience, I will gladly praise them for their mid-budget efforts (competitor Amazon Studios has a business model to aspire to). Until then, however, I will not settle on this issue. 

To respond to Netflix Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos’s claim that viewers will enjoy Roma just as much on their phones as on the big screen: No, Ted, they absolutely will not.

Roma is now available for streaming on Netflix. The film is also playing in select theaters nationwide, and I implore you to make every attempt to catch it on the big screen. Chicago's Music Box Theater will also be presenting the film on 70mm film from January 9th to January 13th.