91st Academy Awards Predictions

A particularly nasty awards season will come to a close this Sunday and will either be capped off by a glorious triumph for cinema (i.e., if Roma wins) or a crushing embarrassment that will haunt the Academy for the rest of its existence (i.e., if Green Book wins). Unfortunately, this tension has not been relegated to the top prize, but can also be found in many of the below-the-line categories. Years from now, people will surely look back at some of the winners and ask “how the heck did that happen?”

I’m going into tomorrow’s ceremony more nervous than I’ve ever been. The Academy’s last two Best Picture picks (Moonlight and The Shape of Water) have hinted at a beautiful new direction reflective of the film industry’s increasingly progressive values. What wins will either confirm that this bigger and better Academy is here to stay, or the pendulum will swing the other way in a petty act of backlash (think the move from Obama to Trump).

Typically, the Oscars can be reliably predicted with stats: Certain films dominate certain precursor awards ceremonies and we all place our bets with confidence. That’s not the case this year—no single film is “the one to beat”, and there are a lot of factors that could cause a variety of upsets.

Firstly, there’s the Academy’s preferential ballot system, which sees voters rank the Best Picture nominees from favorite to least favorite rather than selecting an individual film. This means that second- and third-place votes can be invaluable, that “love it or hate it” films struggle to pull off a victory, and that the final winner tends to be the film that everyone dislikes the least.

Secondly, the Academy’s efforts to diversify their membership could pay off in surprising ways. One indicator is Roma’s wealth of nominations and the unexpected inclusions of Cold War (Director and Cinematography), Never Look Away (Cinematography), and Border (Makeup and Hairstyling); clearly, international filmmakers are shaking things up in ways that the pundits don’t yet understand.

With all that said, here are my predictions for the 91^st annual Academy Awards.

(Netflix)

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

Perhaps the toughest category of the night—and certainly the most nerve-wracking—this could go down any number of ways. A Star Is Born was the early favorite but has all but vanished from the competition. The preferential ballot could still help it out, but Bradley Cooper’s absence from the Directing race makes its comeback doubtful. Vice puzzled critics with its persistence, but it’s unlikely to pull off any wins besides Makeup and Hairstyling. The Favourite co-lead the nominees, but I imagine that its Lanthimos quirks and superb trio of women will turn off the old white men that people tend to associate with the Academy. BlacKkKlansman has been present throughout awards season and has gotten all the requisite guild nominations but has failed to win any. Though it’s politically explosive, it’s also too “woke” for the older voters who scoffed at Get Out last year. They’re much more likely to reward Spike with a Screenplay win.

That leaves us with four films: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, and Roma. Black Panther unexpectedly won at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and its status as a cultural juggernaut would make for a satisfying win, regardless of what you think of the film. Nevertheless, much of the Academy will scoff at the very thought of rewarding a superhero film, so it will likely perform poorly on the preferential ballot.

Bohemian Rhapsody disgusted critics, but it has been a persistent nuisance throughout the season. Director Bryan Singer’s pedophilia allegations will hopefully halt its chances, but I can’t shake the feeling that it could still pull it off in a blatant insult to the #MeToo movement.

Therefore, the race ultimately comes down to Green Book versus Roma, two very different films that ultimately personify the violent conflict within the older and younger segments of the Academy. Green Book is a “both sides” movie that lacks a basic understanding of how racism works, but it has charmed the older white voters who…lack a basic understanding of how racism works. Its role in the awards narrative is not unlike last year’s Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, another film that divided the film community with its handling of such a sensitive topic. We all saw how that one turned out, though.

This brings us to Roma. The critical darling has a lot working against it (the Netflix factor, its deliberate pacing, the lack of color, and the fact that not a single non-English language film has won before), but it’s undeniably the best film nominated. It triumphed at the BAFTAs a couple of weeks ago, which is a good sign. The way I see it, if the Academy wants to make a political statement here (which they should), Roma is a film that masterfully addresses issues of class, gender, and race, all while set south of our border. You want to piss off the Orange Cheeto? Look no further. Factor in the aforementioned presence of new international voters and the fact that even those who aren’t in love with the film still respect it and I think it will play very nicely on the preferential ballot.

If it wins, nothing will ever be the same again—Netflix will have a Best Picture Oscar, the Academy will cease to be an English-only institution, and I will be able to go to sleep a happy man.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Green Book

Should Win: Roma

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay, Vice

Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War

Alfonso Cuarón has dominated the precursors, including the DGAs—his win is all but certain. The only person potentially standing in his way is Spike Lee, whose win would make for a great Oscar moment.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Could Win: Spike Lee

Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Glenn Close is a Hollywood veteran who has yet to claim an Oscar. Olivia Colman and Lady Gaga both have some traction, but not enough to stage an upset. I would love to see the new international voters cause a shocking surprise win for Yalitza Aparicio happen, but that’s probably wishful thinking.

Will Win: Glenn Close

Could Win: Olivia Colman

Should Win: Yalitza Aparicio

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

For whatever reason, everybody loves Rami. Cooper’s surprise exclusion in the Directing race could lead to some sympathy votes here and Bale’s physical transformation demands respect but, again, both are unlikely.

Will Win: Rami Malek

Could Win: Christian Bale

Should Win: Ethan Hawke (not nominated)

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

The least certain of the acting categories, this one could go a few ways. The favorite is Regina King for her powerful turn in If Beale Street Could Talk. If Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz don’t split the vote for The Favourite, the latter could also feasibly take the gold. Still, I wouldn’t count out Roma’s Marina de Tavira, whose surprise nomination could carry over into a surprise win.

Will Win: Regina King

Could Win: Rachel Weisz

Should Win: Marina de Tavira

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Mahershala Ali is Green Book’s one redeeming factor—the man is a powerhouse of an actor who brings his A-game to every role. It’s the only win for the film that I would be fine with, as it means we’ll get to see him in even more films. Richard E. Grant has consistently been on Ali’s tail, and his impeccable charm would also make for a great moment.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Could Win: Richard E. Grant

Should Win: Mahershala Ali

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

All eyes are on this category to provide some foresight on the evening’s Best Picture winner. The Writer’s Guild gave this award to Eighth Grade, which was unfortunately snubbed by the Academy. This will reveal how strong the Green Book passion really is—a win for The Favourite is a win for film lovers everywhere, while a win for Green Book spells impending doom. A surprise Roma victory (which is incredibly unlikely) would foreshadow an unquestionable Best Picture triumph. If it were up to me? Paul Shrader’s First Reformed was one of the best films of 2018 and deserves this trophy for its nuanced handling of America’s political climate.

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Green Book

Should Win: First Reformed

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Get ready to stand when Spike wins his first competitive Oscar. Just don’t be too shocked if WGA-winner Can You Ever Forgive Me? steals it.

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Could Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Cinematography

Cold War

The Favourite

Never Look Away

Roma

A Star Is Born

Is there any doubt? Actually, maybe. Cold War won with the American Society of Cinematographers, who didn’t take kindly to Cuarón shooting his own film in lieu of a dedicated DP. The wider Academy is unlikely to note the difference, however, and Roma is unquestionably the greatest achievement here.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Should Win: Roma

Best Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Vice

What even is this lineup? The Academy should be incredibly embarrassed. BlacKkKlansman suffers from some odd pacing, The Favourite drags a bit in the second half, and Green Book is utterly unremarkable. Bohemian Rhapsody is supposedly a mess here (I have yet to see it due to Singer’s history of sexual abuse), but the industry has apparently taken pity on veteran editor John Ottman for salvaging a disaster of a shoot into something semi-coherent. On the other hand, Vice is the flashiest film here, which has been the trend in the last several years. It also took the BAFTA.

But seriously, where is Roma?

Will Win: Vice

Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should Win: Roma

(Marvel Studios)

Best Production Design

Black Panther

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

These next two categories are neck-and-neck between The Favourite and Black Panther. The former is the conventional (and perhaps, when filling out your ballot, the logical) choice, but the latter would be historic—it makes for the better Oscar narrative. Personally, I think the Academy has seriously underappreciated the craftsmanship that went into Roma’s recreation of 1970s Mexico City and Cuarón’s childhood home.

Will Win: Black Panther

Could Win: The Favourite

Should Win: Roma

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

The upgraded Black Panther suit itself is lackluster, but the rest of the Wakandan garb is stunning. Unfortunately, The Favourite’s Sandy Powell is unstoppable Oscar favorite (pun not intended). Flip a coin.

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Black Panther

Should Win: Black Panther

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Infinity War swept the visual effects society, but First Man is the “mature” contender. I could also imagine Solo (or any of the other nominees, really) coming out of nowhere for a shocking win.

Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Could Win: First Man

Should Win: Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Score

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

One of the more wide-open categories of the night, this could go any number of ways. Conventional wisdom says it’s Black Panther versus If Beale Street Could Talk, but BlacKkKlansman might surprise us.

Will Win: Black Panther

Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Song

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, “When a Cowboy Trades his Spurs for Wings”

Black Panther, “All the Stars”

Mary Poppins Returns, “The Place Where Lost Things Go”

RGB, “I’ll Fight”

A Star Is Born, “Shallow”

A Star Is Born will have to settle for this single award for what, even I have to admit, is a fantastic song. It made for a great moment in an okay movie.

Will Win: “Shallow”

Could Win: “All the Stars”

Should Win: “Shallow”

Best Sound Editing

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

I’ll be on the edge of my seat for both sound categories. Bohemian Rhapsody took the BAFTA (which combines Editing and Mixing into a single “Sound” award), but A Quiet Place is a distinctly sound-based experience. First Man could also sneak in an snatch it.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: A Quiet Place

Should Win: A Quiet Place

Best Sound Mixing

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

Again, Bohemian Rhapsody will likely take this one, but A Star Is Born is another quasi-musical with an impressive mix. If we’re underestimating anything here, it’s Roma, which has one of the most exceptional and nuanced surround sound mixes I have ever heard. Unfortunately, with that film’s Netflix release, many of the voters likely didn’t get a chance to properly experience it. However, if the technical branches did their homework, I wouldn’t rule it out.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: A Star Is Born

Should Win: Roma

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Border

Mary Queen of Scots

Border

And the Oscar for making Christian Bale look like Dick Cheney goes to…

Will Win: Vice

Could Win: Mary Queen of Scots

Should Win: Vice

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum

Cold War

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

Roma should take this without question, unless enough voters decide they want to vote for Cold War here and Roma for Best Picture so as to spread the love.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Should Win: Roma

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spider-Verse is a landmark in animation, a timely and inspiring narrative, and of 2018’s best films. Let’s just hope the Pixar bias doesn’t strike.

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Could Win: Incredibles 2

Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Feature

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

A coin toss between Free Solo and RBG. However, I’m betting that the disgusting embarrassment that is Brett Kavanaugh will have motivated voters to celebrate an American hero.

Will Win: RBG

Could Win: Free Solo

Should Win: Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (not nominated)