(Oscars.org)
It’s that wonderful time of the year again! Awards season
will come to a close tomorrow night with the 90th annual Academy
Awards. With Best Picture still up in the air and plenty of opportunities for
Hollywood to address its sexual harassment and diversity problems, we’re in for
an exciting ceremony.
Without further ado, here are my predictions in all 24
categories:
(Fox Searchlight)
Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The biggest award of the night is also the most uncertain. Over
the five or so years I’ve closely followed the Oscars, Best Picture usually
comes down to either a cutthroat battle between two films (Spotlight and The Revenant)
or a frontrunner and its potential upset (La
La Land and Moonlight, Birdman and Boyhood). This year, five films could potentially take home the
gold: Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards.
Best Picture is the only category that uses what is called a
preferential ballot. In short, voters rank five of the nominees in order of
preference and films get eliminated until one has over 50% of the vote. This
favors films admired across the board and can lead to upsets with love-it-or-hate-it
films.
Lady Bird and Dunkirk are the least likely to win of
the aforementioned five. The former is unlikely to win any of the other categories
its nominated for while the latter has proved difficult for some voters due to
its unconventional style (also, it didn’t win any major precursor awards). Get Out doesn’t have the precursor wins
behind it either, but it could snag Original Screenplay and then the top honor
(Spotlight did this two years ago).
It’s the kind of zeitgeisty, topical film that reflects well on the Academy,
but many older voters are turned off by it.
That leaves us with The
Shape of Water and Three Billboards.
The former has a Directors Guild Award, Producers Guild Award, Critics Choice
Award, and 13 total nominations. On paper, it is the favorite. Three Billboards got the SAG, BAFTA, and
Golden Globe, but it has also received backlash for its messy handling of
racial politics. Although it will win Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and
(maybe) Best Original Screenplay, it missed out on a directing nomination and the
controversy surrounding it could very well harm it on the preferential ballot.
It’s a tight race, and while it wouldn’t normally be considered
a frontrunner, I can’t shake the feeling that Get Out could still pull it off. Ultimately, I’m going to go with The Shape of Water, but I’ll be on the
edge of my seat.
Will Win: The Shape of
Water
Could Win: Three
Billboards, Get Out
Should Win: The Shape
of Water
Should Have Been Nominated: So many other films worthy here,
but Wonder Woman, Logan, The Big Sick, War for the
Planet of the Apes, and Blade Runner
2049 just to name a few.
(Dailywire.com)
Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady
Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom
Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The
Shape of Water
Whoever wins the Directors Guild Award is almost guaranteed
the Oscar so congratulations to Guillemo del Toro. This is a great group of
nominees, but Christopher Nolan’s work in Dunkirk
was staggering and the director is long overdue (this is somehow only his first
nomination in this category). However, the sad truth is that del Toro is
unlikely to make a film that will resonate with the Academy the way The Shape of Water did (fantasy isn’t typically
their thing). Nolan will get his time in the spotlight one day. If anyone else
pulls off a win, expect Best Picture to go in a similar direction.
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Could Win: Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro
Should Have Been Nominated: Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049), Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
(Focus Features)
Best Actor in a
Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Call
Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom
Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get
Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest
Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman
J. Israel, Esq.
Gary Oldman has dominated this category from the start. If
the actor’s alleged history of abuse catches up with him, Timothée Chalamet
will take his place. Unfortunately, I doubt that will be the case.
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet
Should Have Been Nominated: Hugh Jackman (Logan), Ryan Gosling (Blade Runner 2049), Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)
(Fox Searchlight)
Best Actress in a
Leading Role
Sally Hawkins, The
Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I,
Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady
Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
This is a year of boring acting races and there’s no reason
to doubt Frances McDormand has this locked down.
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Could Win: Sally Hawkins
Should Win: Sally Hawkins
Should Have Been Nominated: Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread), Jennifer Lawrence (mother!), Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman)
(Fox Searchlight)
Best Actor in a
Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe, The
Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The
Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All
the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Rockwell. No lengthy explanation needed.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Could Win: Willem Dafoe
Should Win: Willem Dafoe
Should Have Been Nominated: Patrick Stewart (Logan), Bryan Cranston (Lady Flag Flying), Mark Hamill (Star Wars: The Last Jedi), Harrison Ford
(Blade Runner 2049)
(Neon)
Best Actress in a
Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I,
Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom
Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady
Bird
Octavia Spencer, The
Shape of Water
Allison Janney pretty much has this one in the bag, but if Lady Bird is going to pull off a win
anywhere, it’s with Laurie Metcalf.
Will Win: Allison Janney
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
Should Have Been Nominated: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
(Universal)
Best Original
Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ah, things finally get interesting again. This is one of the
strongest Original Screenplay lineups I’ve seen. The Big Sick seems like the most unlikely winner considering the film
sadly missed out on a Best Picture nomination. Lady Bird and The Shape of
Water can’t quite put up a fight against Get Out and Three Billboards.
The former took home the Writers Guild Award, but Martin McDonough’s screenplay
was ineligible there. It’s a tight call but I think McDonough’s lack of a directing
nomination might get him some consolation votes here. I’d say it’s pretty
neck-and-neck though.
Will Win: Three
Billboards
Could Win: Get Out
Should Win: The Shape
of Water
Should Have Been Nominated: Dunkirk, mother!
(Sony Pictures Classics)
Best Adapted
Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
James Ivory’s work on Call
Me By Your Name is the clear champion here. That said, can we get a round
of applause for Logan? A tremendous
film that had an equally tremendous uphill battle due to its superhero origins.
Well deserved.
Will Win: Call Me By
Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Call Me By
Your Name
Should Have Been Nominated: Blade Runner 2049
(Warner Bros.)
Best Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside
Ebbing, Missouri
Lee Smith’s work on Dunkirk
is nothing short of extraordinary. It’s incredibly complicated, intricate, near
flawless work. However, Baby Driver poses
a serious challenge. That film has an energetic and rhythmic edit that gives
the film so much of its style. I hope voters recognize that they already gave
an Oscar to this kind of editing with Whiplash.
Dunkirk is the more innovative work
here.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Dunkirk
Should Have Been Nominated: Call Me By Your Name, Blade
Runner 2049
(Warner Bros.)
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
It’s finally time to give Roger Deakins that Oscar after 13
(13!!!) prior nominations. This isn’t going to be a pity win either—Deakins’s
work in Blade Runner 2049 is
absolutely jaw dropping. If anyone is a threat, it’s Mudbound’s Rachel Morrison. Morrison is outrageously the first
woman every nominated in this category. Could this be enough the get her a win?
Dunkirk and The Shape of Water could also feasibly pull off upsets.
Will Win: Blade Runner
2049
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Blade
Runner 2049
Should Have Been Nominated: War for the Planet of the Apes, Call
Me By Your Name
(Warner Bros.)
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
The blood-curling shriek of enemy planes divebombing soldiers
in Dunkirk still gives me chills. Blade Runner also has some great, powerful
sound editing that shouldn’t be neglected. The sound awards always seem to go to
the film I personally think deserves to win (nobody was predicting Arrival to win last year, but…), so I’m
betting on Dunkirk and its slew of
other nominations.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Blade
Runner 2049
Should Win: Dunkirk
(TriStar Pictures)
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
Dunkirk again
here, but Baby Driver’s blend of intense
action, witty dialogue, and catchy tunes will put up a fight.
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Dunkirk
Should Have Been Nominated: mother!
(20th Century Fox)
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the
Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
War for the Planet of
the Apes
This category has unfortunately turned into “Best CGI”
instead of Best Visual Effects (hence the absence of Dunkirk and The Shape of
Water and the random appearance of Kong:
Skull Island and Guardians of the
Galaxy). War for the Planet of the
Apes’ extraordinary motion capture work needs
to be recognized with this trilogy capper. Blade
Runner 2049’s third act surprise could cause an upset (plus the film won at
the BAFTAs), but Rogue One lost last
year with a similar accomplishment.
Will Win: War for the
Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Blade
Runner 2049
Should Win: War for
the Planet of the Apes
Should Have Been Nominated: Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
(Fox Searchlight)
Best Production
Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
The Shape of Water
somehow throws every shade of green imaginable into fantastic, hyper-realistic
sets. It’s magical work. I always complain that science fiction films get
overlooked here in favor of period pieces (e.g., Rogue One, Interstellar),
so I would be okay to see Blade Runner
pull this one off.
Will Win: The Shape of
Water
Could Win: Blade
Runner 2049
Should Win: The Shape
of Water
Should Have Been Nominated: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, mother!
(Focus Features)
Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
Phantom Thread has
some seriously impressive fashion on display, plus the costumes are
instrumental to the film’s story.
Will Win: Phantom
Thread
Could Win: The Shape
of Water
Should Win: Phantom
Thread
Should Have Been Nominated: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
(Focus Features)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
The makeup team on Darkest
Hour completely transformed Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill—it’s the
obvious choice. But why did The Shape of
Water get snubbed here with its almost entirely practical Amphibian Man? My
assumption is that voters wrongly considered it to be Costume Design. Oh well.
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Wonder
Should Win: Darkest
Hour
Should Have Been Nominated: The Shape of Water, Logan,
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
(Fox Searchlight)
Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri
A great lineup of film scores. Alexandre Desplat’s whimsical
melodies in The Shape of Water should
win without any problem, but Johnny Greenwood’s work in Phantom Thread has gotten plenty of praise. However, Hans Zimmer’s
experimental, tension-wrought compositions for Dunkirk deserves it the most in my book.
Will Win: The Shape of
Water
Could Win: Phantom
Thread
Should Win: Dunkirk
Should Have Been Nominated: Wonder Woman, War for the
Planet of the Apes
(Pixar)
Best Original Song
Mudbound, “Mighty
River”
Call Me By Your Name,
“Mystery of Love”
Coco, “Remember Me”
Marshall, “Stand
Up for Something”
The Greatest Showman,
“This Is Me”
I hate this category. I hate the live performances. I hate
the pop tunes. Ugh.
Will Win: “Remember Me”
Could Win: “This Is Me”
Should Win: “Mystery of Love”
Should Have Been Nominated: Detroit, “It Ain’t Fair”
Best Animated Feature
Film
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Pixar always wins here. But on a far more important note, the
fact that The Boss Baby got nominated
while The LEGO Batman Movie was
snubbed is a crime against humanity. Shame on you, Academy.
Will Win: Coco
Could Win: The Breadwinner
Should Win: The
Breadwinner
Should Have Been Nominated: The LEGO Batman Movie
Best Foreign Language
Film
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
Will Win: A Fantastic
Woman
Could Win: The Insult
Best Animated Short
Film
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Will Win: Dear
Basketball
Could Win: Garden
Party
Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough
to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Man in Aleppo
Strong Island
Will Win: Faces Places
Could Win: Icarus,
Last Man in Aleppo
Best Documentary
Short
Edith+Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic
Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Will Win: Heroin(e)
Could Win: Heaven Is a
Traffic Jam on the 405
Best Live Action
Short Film
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Could Win: The Silent
Child
The 90th annual Academy Awards will be
broadcasted live on ABC Sunday, March 4 at 7:00 P.M. central time.
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