75th Annual Golden Globes Predictions

(NBC)

The Golden Globes are usually a bit unpredictable, and in a year without a front-runner, predictions are even harder. Here are some brief thoughts and predictions:

Best Picture Drama: There’s a world where each one of these films could win. Despite its Oscar thrust, the Globes don’t really recognize craft, so Dunkirk is probably out. Politics are going to be at the forefront of the ceremony, so The Post and The Shape of Water both make big statements. The Shape of Water received the most nominations, and despite the insufferable excuse for a president screaming “fake news” on Twitter every day, it feels both incredibly timely and timelessly cinematic. The Post is just timely, and that's why it has so much weight. I'm going with Guillermo del Toro's masterful adult fairy tale. 

Best Picture “Comedy”/Musical: Get Out versus Lady Bird. The former is the political choice, the latter the feel-good—and likely more laudable—choice. Both worthy, both equally likely. If they’re going with The Shape of Water, then there might be less of an urge to award Get Out’s racial satire. So Lady Bird, I guess.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan versus Guillermo del Toro. Two masters, again both equally likely. Nolan’s film is the more revelatory—an experimental visual extravaganza with his trademark love of time manipulation. Del Toro’s is more personal, more overtly politically charged, and more lavishly traditional. Personally torn. My gut says Nolan, but even if del Toro wins, I’ll still be cheering.

Best Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, followed by Lady Bird.

Best Actor Drama: Gary Oldman versus Timothée Chalamet. Oldman has the edge.

Best Actress Drama: Sally Hawkins versus Frances McDormand. With Shape of Water leading the night, Hawkins has the edge. Meryl Streep remains as a purely political move after her powerful speech at last year’s show.

Best Supporting Actor: Could go a number of ways. Christopher Plummer winning would be a way of giving the middle finger to Kevin Spacey and other sexual harassers (if the nomination wasn’t already enough). Willem Dafoe will probably win the Oscar, but that’s what everyone said about Mahershala Ali last year (and he did go on to win), so that doesn’t guarantee anything. Sam Rockwell was great, Armie Hammer was great. Sadly, Richard Jenkins doesn’t really have a chance (also, I know Michael Shannon was playing a classic Michael Shannon role, but seriously, he was terrific and I think he should be the one getting the nominations this season). Too close to call, but I’ll say Dafoe out of necessity.

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf versus Allison Janey. Laurie Metcalf has the edge.

Best Actor Comedy: James Franco for his Tommy Wiseau caricature.

Best Actress Comedy: Saoirse Ronan, followed by Margot Robbie.

Best Original Score: In the only technical award, technical masterpiece Dunkirk leaves an impression. The Shape of Water could sneak in.

Best Animated Feature: Coco.

Best Original Song: Coco (also, I hate this award and I think everything about it is stupid).

Best Foreign Language Film: The Square, but this one is usually tough to call unless there’s a clear frontrunner (and there isn’t).

One final note. The Golden Globes don't really affect the trajectory of awards season (entirely separate voting body). But they are the second most mainstream ceremony, only topped by the Oscars. Basically, no matter how bizarre or unexpected some of the winners are, there's only a very small chance that the Oscar results are affected. But then again, with so many coin flips in this year's lineup and a changing Academy body, who can say for sure?